At the Brink : The Specter of a THIRD WORLD WAR AND THE GLOBAL Reckoning 

by Mostafa Sleem  updated on February 20, 2024       

 

Picture a world on the edge of chaos, where history lessons hang in balance, challenging us to forge a new path ahead. Since the end of the Cold War, global stability has been seen as being assured. However, mounting geopolitical tensions now threaten to upend this delicate equilibrium. Western nations are fortifying their defenses, preparing for potential conflicts with powerful rivals like Russia and China. The COVID-19 pandemic, resurgent nationalism, and pivotal electoral shifts are reshaping the international order. In this critical moment, the looming specter of a third world war leaves us with a pressing question—Is this just a shadow on the horizon, or an impending reality?  

 

Our focus extends beyond incremental shifts; we are witnessing ruptures in the very foundation of global relations. From the rise of China as a global power to the resurgence of the historic nemesis of the West. Russia, and the tumultuous theaters in Ukraine, the Middle East, Africa, and beyond, the geopolitical landscape is fraught with tensions that could reshape the world as we know it.  

 

Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said in a global outlook report that,”while predicting the course of any single geopolitical crisis is fraught, what is clear is that the global trajectory is toward more frequent conflicts of increasing consequence”.   

 

 

  

 

 

The Rise of the Right-Wing & 2024 is the election year.  

 

Amid these unfolding dramas and growing right-wing sentiment, critical questions arise: What percentage of governments have turned right-wing since 2020, and what could this mean for the world order? 
 

2024 could be a breakpoint year, with influential countries embarking on elections that may pivot the course of global politics. The dialogue here extends from recent escalations to the specific impacts on Africa and the significance of the DRC within this context.  

  

China:  A Rising Global Power  

 

China, emerging as a global power, presents its own complex web of challenges. From the Taiwan Strait to the South China Sea and its economic ties worldwide, China’s ascendancy carries profound global implications. The potential for friction and conflict with the United States and its allies underscores the fragility of the current global order.  

 

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is seen as pro-independence, won the elections over the Kuomintang (KMT), which is more Beijing-friendly. The victory for the DPP may escalate tension due to its stance on a formal declaration of independence, which is a red line for China, undermining the one land policy of China.  

 

In recent years, the US strengthened its ties with key players in the region including Japan, Australia, and Taiwan.  

  

Russia a Historic nemesis of the West  

 

Russia, long a historic nemesis of the West, has seen renewed tensions since the Soviet Union’s dissolution. During the cold war, in some countries in Africa, the two global powers sponsored opposing liberation groups. After a brutal Cold War that had plunged the world into proxy wars from the east to the west, the world came under the US Leadership as the protector of the world and the leader of the development of the world.  

 

Now that conflict has resumed. The world is being divided into two antagonistic blocs. One led by the USA and the other led by Russia and China.  

 

Today, the conflict in Ukraine serves as a flashpoint, drawing in NATO and igniting fears of a wider conflict. The West’s opposition to Russia’s actions and the potential for further escalations have stoked concerns about a global conflagration.   

 

Several countries apart of the NATO military alliance have taken steps to prepare for the chance of the war in Ukraine breaking into other parts of Europe. Biden has also warned of the U.S. being pulled into a direct conflict with Russia if Moscow is successful in its goals in Ukraine, urging Congress in a statement in December to sign off on additional military aid to send to Kyiv.  

 

The defense secretary, Grant Shapps, said that we are “moving from a post-war to pre-war world”.. In the same speech he suggested that in five years’ time the UK could be facing conflict in multiple theaters, including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. New YouGov data shows that most Britons are now braced for WW3, with 53% thinking it is likely that there will be another world war in the next 5-10 years. Only 31% of Britons think another global conflict is unlikely within that period, including just 8% who think it is “not at all likely”. British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said that Britain should prepare for war with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea in the next five years. Meanwhile, in Dublin Chinese Premier Li Qiang met Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and touted the “huge potential” of deeper economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.  

 

President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced the danger of the Ukraine conflict escalating into World War Three, as he pressed his case for support from many nations, from Germany to the United States, in an interview with German state broadcaster ARD on Sunday. “It seems to me that the Chancellor (Olaf Scholz) is aware of this risk,” Zelensky said, adding that if Russia hit a NATO country, it would be “the beginning of the Third World War.”  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Enduring Struggle of the Palestinians  
 

The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict stands as a perpetual flashpoint in the Middle East, a region pivotal to global stability due to its vast energy resources and critical shipping routes. The conflict traces back to events 75 years ago, stemming from a civil war between Palestinians and the Zionist movement that caused displacement and expulsion of Palestinians in 1948, with British support.  

 

On October 7th, 2023, a devastating war erupted between Palestinians and Israel. The ongoing war has claimed tens of thousands of lives and has led to the collapse of essential services in the Gaza Strip. After more than 120 days of conflict, the international community has expressed deep concern over the potential escalation of the situation into a broader conflict. Furthermore, the International Court of Justice has recognized Israel’s response as an act of genocide.  

 

The Middle East, recognized as the most “combustible situation,” would have a broader spillover from the Israel-Palestinian conflict into nearby states, including Iran, which could spiral into a regional conflict with global and military implications. The primary risk of this form of escalation would be a disruption of the transit of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil supply is shipped.  

 

The war has incited responses from regional resistance groups in the region, such as repeated attacks on shipping vessels traveling through the Red Sea by the Houthi rebels based in Yemen and recent missile strikes targeting US bases in Jordan. The United States’ involvement has garnered both support and criticism, with concerns growing about the potential for a wider conflict engulfing the Middle East and beyond. Former CIA Director John Brennan described the deadly attack as a ‘dangerous escalation’ in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war.  

 

Meanwhile, one British MP warned that the escalation in the volatile region also affects the UK, saying that it could become a ‘necessity’ for Britain to get involved. Such concerns come amid fears that the wars in Europe and the Middle East could proliferate into something even larger, with former US president Donald Trump warning on Sunday: ’we are on the brink of World War Three’.  

 

Amid these tensions, there are fears that the conflict could draw in other global powers such as Beijing and Moscow. According to Vlad Şutea, founder and lead analyst at threat casting group T-Intelligence, further distractions in the form of a wider Middle East conflict could benefit these powers, amplifying the stakes involved.  

 

 

 

 

Africa Struggles for Stability and Sovereignty 

 

Turning our gaze to Africa, the continent’s delicate balance and potential for growth stand in contrast to ongoing rifts and armed conflicts. After Colonialism plundered the countries and created a divided continent, the African continent is Emerging from the shadows of colonial exploitation, Africa’s nations are striving to carve out their place in the global community. Unlike many countries in the west, Africa is not saddled by debt. (check this statement as many African countries are in debt to China) Potential is already there, where the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa is said to increase by 800% until 2050.  

 

In the Last year, the Sahel of Africa witnessed 3 coup d’état that led to the ousting of previous regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. US and its allies’ relations with Africa have been characterized by pressuring African governments to uphold respect of their citizen’s  human rights. Today, most African leaders obtained their power through violation of people’s human rights, and they keep that power by those means under the world’s sights.  

 

In the past decade, various dormant conflicts have resurfaced, such as the escalating tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam, the dispute between Morocco and Algeria concerning the Sahara Desert And the ongoing humanitarian crises in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.  

 

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a crucial player in this global chessboard, grapples with internal challenges amidst a complex web of regional and international interests. An estimated 6.1 million people are currently internally displaced in DRC, a 17 per cent increase from October 2022.  

 

Recent conflicts in the DRC and its eastern regions have led to heightened tensions with neighboring countries, notably Burundi and Rwanda. The international community’s relative silence on the situation has allowed militant activities along the borders to persist, particularly in the context of competition over valuable mineral resources.  

 

The world is grappling with growing conflicts and increasing divisions. However, the critical question remains: What would be the impact on the Democratic Republic of Congo if a World War 3 were to erupt? As we examine the complexities of global issues, it is evident that the DRC is potentially facing an additional five years of sustained injustice amidst these turbulent times.  

 

As we contemplate the DRC’s precarious position, it is essential to envision strategies that affirm sovereignty and stability. The DRC, like the rest of the world, must act, not just react. Could strengthening food security and infrastructure not only fortify the DRC against the tremors of global conflict but also set an example for sustainable development?  

  

 

Forging a Peaceful and Resilient Path Ahead  

 

  

We hover on the brink of catastrophe, and the international community seems paralyzed—like the United Nations (a modern-day League of Nations). Yet, amidst the fractures and foreshocks, there is room for hope, for action, and for leadership that dares to steer us away from a past that left the world in ashes.  

 

Preparing for a worst-case scenario involves a multi-thronged approach: solidifying food security, diversifying economic output, stockpiling crucial resources, and improving infrastructure to fortify the DRC’s sovereign capabilities. The possibility of a third world war is an ominous cloud casting its bleak shadow across nations, communities, and future generations. As the World watches the Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, and China-Taiwan conflicts, leaders must realize that War does not solve issues, good diplomacy and sensible discussions can reap better results.  

 

As nations stand on the precipice of division or unity, the DRC—like many other nations—faces choices that could define its role in a potentially fragmented future. The world inches closer to the brink of another large-scale war, driven by major powers’ military posturing and an apparent disregard for the everyday struggles of people across the globe.  

 

No state can expect to be shielded from the fallout, least of all the Democratic Republic of Congo—a nation that stands at the intersection of vast potential and profound challenges. The DRC, while navigating its own fraught path, reflects the larger global narrative: as we stare into the abyss of possible global conflict, it is the decisions made at these crossroads that will determine whether the specter of World War III remains just that—a dark possibility—or manifests as a devastating reality.  

 

The collective challenge is to embrace cooperative frameworks, enforce peace, and uphold human dignity, aligning our actions with the lesson’s history has taught us. By doing so, the world, especially nations like the DRC that stand to lose the most, might steer away from a precipice which leads not to opportunity, but to an abyss from which return is uncertain.  

 

It is not just about the threat of war—it is about the resilience and adaptability of nations like the DRC in the face of such peril. It is about finding a way to wield partnership over power, diplomacy over destruction. As citizens of this interconnected global village, can we find solidarity in our shared vulnerabilities and strengths!  

 

Africa, the cradle of humanity, a land that stirs the soul with its mystic allure. My soul chose to be born in a land where golden savannahs stretch far and wide. A land where one can witness the plains come alive with the rhythmic footsteps of herds embarking on their breath-taking migration in a timeless display of resilience and unity. A country that holds beauty, that enchants the senses and ignites wonder.

My land, my motherland Kenya. Born into a Kenyan family of Asian descent, a family that has lived and breathed Kenya and Africa for previous 5 generations, I can only identify as a Kenyan, a proud 6th generation African. Brought up in a family where ‘Being Human’ was the main principal belief. We have been raised with values that don’t differ greatly from those of the thousands of tribes that make up Africa – roots, heritage, family, faith, morals, principles and more.

Many years ago, I stood on stage at a speech writing contest in High School, where I described the strategy behind Muhamad Ali’s glorious win where he “floated like a butterfly, and stung like a bee” against George Foreman, in the fight forever known as the ‘Rumble in the Jungle.’ Years later, never even in my wildest imagination, did I imagine I would be living in the very ‘jungle’ itself, and working in the world of strategic storytelling and encouraging the amplification of Congolese voices and narratives far and wide across the globe from the heart of Africa.

Congo or as it was then called Zaire, a land that was stamped in the memory of the World as the place where Ali fought Foreman and caused a mighty Rumble in the boxing world. A battle that was immortalised in the song ‘In Zaire’ sung by Johnny Wakelin. Congo was a land everyone wanted to know about.

A land that is endowed with all the riches known to mankind. A blessed land, with a rich cultural heritage and a teeming, deserving population. A land sadly destroyed by its colonial past. Which, since its independence, is slowly trying to attain its rightful place in the World. It is here that I arrived five years back.

As I look back on my first five years of living in the Democratic Republic of Congo, there have been moments of floating and very often, little stings. I moved to Kinshasa for love. In the beginning, I can honestly admit, it was not love for the city or the country or the people – I didn’t know enough about this 

ginormous country and the 100+ million people that fill its borders – it was personal love. But five years later, I never thought I could love a country and its people as though they were mine. That love comes from the heart that feels the mystic rhythm of the African land, and I couldn’t be prouder to call it home.

You can never shake the ancient dust of Africa off your boots – no matter how far and wide you travel.

Having lived in London for thirteen years followed by a few years in the Middle East, returning to Africa was natural. 

The love for Africa always remains in the soul. Living in the heart and soul of Central Africa, has been an adventure.

The narratives that have filled Western Media have sung a different song for many years, call it geo-politics, strategic positioning, economic control, all things aside, the story of the Congo has never really been told loudly by the Congolese themselves. From the outside looking in, the perceptions are dotted and plagued with negativity, but on the ground, the beating hearts of the Congolese are rumbling a little louder day by day towards progress, and it’s in these slivers of hope, that the true stories are revealed.

The stories that spotlight the young entrepreneur battling to build a viable business, young students carving out their careers currently into untapped and underdeveloped industries, the non-existent middle class that should build the private sector and contribute to its growth and the country’s economy, international investors building projects that create jobs and wealth for the locals as much as it does for the financial interest in the Congo. We can’t talk about changing the narrative of a country when we don’t discuss the positive changes that education, infrastructure developments, economic policies, universal health care, food self sufficiency etc can contribute towards developing Congo.

In Africa, a transformative era is on the horizon as the continent sets its sights on change and development like never before, and country examples like Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, Morocco, and Kenya are a testament to these positive changes. A combined drive by the Africans to build an Africa by Africans for a future developed Africa. A daunting task as a fellow African who first arrived in Kinshasa for a two-week trip which quickly extended from month to month and snowballed into creating a business in the field of strategic advisory and communications. It was created around the simple premise – the African narrative needs to be written by the Africans, and the Congolese needed a platform for their voices to be heard as far and wide across the globe.

At the heart of Africa, the center of its soul, the Congolese beats are picking up. Business is quietly picking up, post the first peaceful democratic elections. As the incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi embarks on his second mandate, the world waits with bated breath for the promised change and greater development, the impact of which can be felt across the entire population. Whether its infrastructure, governance reform, education, better health, access to basic needs – there are plenty of conversations to be had. Storytelling, an essential part of Congolese culture, an oral tradition that is filled with narratives, stories, and songs, need to be told from the perceptions and opinions of the Congolese.

In the past, and especially in 2023 the power and bias of the international media came to the forefront.

Geopolitics and powerful Media Houses controlled and amplified the narrative that in their perception was important. It’s only natural to question the visibility of certain global issues over another. This raises the question about the impact of our voices when catastrophes and issues affecting an African country are narrated differently. Whether it’s election, unrest or other catastrophes affecting an African country, sometimes the western media does not consider it newsworthy because they do not have an in-depth understanding and information of the issues and disasters that affects this Continent.

There are a lot of positive changes happening as well, and these news worthy developments need to be made a part of the Global narrative. Positive or negative these conversations need to be had openly and who better than the Africans to be at the forefront of this narrative. The true voices of the Congolese need to be heard from their heart and soul and from their perspective. That’s when the true picture of the reality of their lives, struggles and aspirations emerges.

There is a need for a platform where the Congolese voices and the African voices can be heard, where views can be freely given not as a negative but as a positive approach to help bring the DRC to take its rightful place, not just in Africa but also in the World. Is it not our experiences from around the world when put together with like minded individuals – where greatness begins? Where stories and narratives become the basis for legacies.

DRConversations is the platform created as a gift for all the voices that need to be heard, for all the emotions that need to be expressed and to bring forth the dreams and aspirations of a nation on the cusp of development. Join this journey by sharing openly your knowledge and experience to make DRC a happy, positive and progressive Nation.

It’s time for another rumble in the jungle – Welcome to the conversations from the Congo.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             KS